Whether you believe that the recovery is already here, is close by, or is still months away, you need to prepare as if the recovery is already here. Effectively this is an unusual situation where the proverbial two edged sword has reasons to cut the same way.

Why you may ask, does this statement make sense?

Regardless of how good or bad the economy is, there are normally three groups of people. Some think the world is starting to get better. Some that it will start to get better later. Another group thinks it will get worse before things get better.

Apply this to business.

The companies who believe the recovery is already here or is close by are either reallocating resources and planning to take advantage of the upside or are planning how to reallocate those resources to take advantage of the upside. Tactics of this planning include new products or how to lure the best managers, staff and customers away from the companies who are not planning for the upside.

Other companies may believe we still have more time before an upturn or that the upturn coming will be quickly followed by another downturn, as happened in the Depression in a number of industries. That group may be in standstill mode or even hunker down mode. This group should reread the prior paragraph about what the more optimistic group plans. Yes, those people who are planning for the upturn plan to take your best people and customers if you are not prepared defensively or willing to turn on a dime when you are more confident that the recovery is here.

In both cases, the key is to balance risk and reward in your planning for the upside. After all, the people who will lead upside initiatives will probably be your best management people and staff. The first group of companies is taking a risk by reallocating their best management and staff to the new initiatives. The second group may be taking more of a risk than they formerly appreciated because their best people and customers are the target of the first group.

Therefore both groups should use their existing strategy, planning or risk management tools to most prudently plan for an upside. The optimists will strategically move key resources, as part of an updated plan. The more conservative group should at least plan a defense until they see more of an upturn.

Your business probably has this planning resource or process available in your function for strategic planning, strategic planning, enterprise risk management, ERM, or even financial planning and analysis or budgeting.

At a minimum, think about how you will prepare for the upturn whenever you see it coming. And why not pull out this article periodically when you consider future decisions. This hectic world will not slow down.